In 1894, President Grover Cleveland, a Democrat, had become wildly unpopular with the American people during his second term. He was the first President elected to serve non-consecutive terms (22nd and 24th) and the first Democrat elected as President since the Civil War. He would also leave behind another record–the Mid-Term Congressional Elections of 1894 (Cleveland’s 2nd term) cost the Democrats 125 seats in the U.S. House. For my many Republican friends out there, the current Mid-Term contests helmed by the nation’s second non-consecutive Chief Executive will not be anywhere close to that bad, but with ballots still to be tabulated across the country and absentee ballots in many states still in the mail, the forecast appears quite strong for the arrival of a Blue-nami.
Cleveland, a lifelong Democrat, was a fiscal conservative. He became known as the Veto President, strongly opposing high tariffs, big spending bills and most any type of government subsidy. During his first term, after vetoing hundreds of different Congressional spending bills (477 vetoes), he earned the nickname “Grover the Good.” Early in his second term, a severe economic downturn in 1893 advanced from recession into depression. During 1894, he sent federal troops to Chicago to break up the nationwide Pullman Rail Strike, prioritizing the movement of commerce and restoration of rail service, but also dispatching American military in offensive action against American labor union members and workers.
And similar to his much later two-term, non-consecutive Chief Executive successor, Cleveland ran against GOP nominee Benjamin Harrison in 1888 — Cleveland won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton similarly lost the Electoral College to Donald J. Trump in 2016, while winning the popular vote. Cleveland and Harrison had a rematch in 1892, and Cleveland won. Cleveland was something of an anomaly within his own party, conservative and part of the Bourbon Democrats, a pro-business and fiscally conservative wing of the Democratic Party at that time.
Cleveland won the first White House race by a 1,200 vote margin in his adopted home state of New York, which gave him New York’s electoral votes and the win. Cleveland lost New York in his second run due to big spending by the GOP in that critical, still competitive state. His third run was successful in part due to the presence of a third party, the Populist Party, taking 8 percent of the popular vote, and giving Cleveland a sizeable win in both the popular vote and the Electoral College.
Moving back to the present, the DNC and state Democratic Parties very effectively nationalized these Mid-Term elections, which are much more typically focused on local, regional and state issues. The Mid-Terms traditionally also favor the party out of power in the White House and on Capitol Hill.
Time and again in modern times, it has been non-aligned Independent voters who decide elections. During 2024, and his return to the White House, Donald Trump carried all seven battleground states, largely based on support exceeding 60% among Independent voters. Heading into these Mid-Terms, Trumps support among Independents evaporated to roughly 15-17% in multiple national polls.
Exit Polling data from the Associated Press identified the top three concerns/issues for voters in this election as the Economy, Government Corruption and Energy Prices/Inflation. A full 3/4 of the sample indicated anger at the current direction of the country, expressing a strong desire for change. Independents as well as Republican-leaning voters expressed disastisfaction with the direction of the current administration and federal government, much more frequently than state or local issues which typically drive Mid-Term cycles and contests
Questions remain about how this President will react to the Blue Wave coming ashore on Election Night 2026. President Trump has already suggested a “do-over” in the state of Alaska’s U.S. Senate contest, where two Dan Sullivans, are seeking the U.S. Senate seat. One Dan Sullivan, is the GOP Incumbent on the ballot, and the other, Dan Sullivan, Jr. (not the Senator’s son), an Independent face Democrat Mary Peltola. With polls closing in the Aleutian Islands of Alaska around 1 a.m., it will be the last state tabulating results, while it increasingly appears the story of the night and the Senate Majority may have already changed hands by that time.
As with any major political power shift, there will be weeks of finger-pointing and blame games… but for these trends to be so consistent, from Georgia and the Carolinas to Alaska…the fault for this blue tidal wave really lies at the feet of one man. Congratulations Mr. President.
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